Sup fellow degens, 

Today is Wednesday, January 14, 2026.

If you are a fan of African football, today is a combination of Christmas, Easter, and your wedding night all rolled into one.

We have the AFCON Semi-Finals:

Most people will bet on "Who Wins."

You are not most people. You are a sophisticated degen who understands that predicting a winner in a semi-final is like trying to predict which way a drunk person will fall.

Instead, we are going to the Prop Market.

Standard markets (Match Winner, Over/Under 2.5) are sharp. The bookies spend millions of dollars and hire math PhDs to get those lines perfect.

But player props are where they get lazy.

They focus on the stars (Salah, Osimhen, Hakimi) and often ignore the chaotic variables.

Here is your 3-Step Strategy for tonight:

1. Main Character Trap 

Everyone is betting on Victor Osimhen to score. Everyone is betting on Mo Salah to score.

When everyone bets on the same thing, the value disappears. The bookies shade the lines because they know the public will bet it anyway.

Look for the Side Characters. The defensive midfielder who loves a long shot. The center-back is a target on corners. For example, Nigerian defender Calvin Bassey came close to scoring a goal in the last match against Algeria. That’s who you should be targeting. 

2. Matchup Matrix 

Don't just look at form. Look at the specific human being the player is facing.

3. Shop Around

I saw Osimhen "Over 1.5 Shots on Target" at -130 on one book and -110 on another.

If you aren't checking multiple apps, you are literally lighting money on fire.

Fixture 1: Senegal vs. Egypt (18:00 WAT)

These two teams hate scoring goals almost as much as they hate losing. In their last 15 meetings, 12 have gone Under 1.5 goals.

Everyone is watching Salah. But Marmoush has 2 goals in his last 5 games and averages decent shot volume. The Senegal defense will double-team Salah, leaving Marmoush with the space to let one rip.

Senegal has kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games. This game smells like a 0-0 draw that goes to penalties. Again.

Fixture 2: Nigeria vs. Morocco (21:00 WAT)

Nigeria is the "Unstoppable Force" (Coming off a 2-0 win vs Algeria). Morocco is the "Immovable Object" (Host nation, just beat Cameroon 2-0).

The Sevilla striker scored the clincher against Algeria. He is aggressive, averaging 2.74 shots per 90 mins over the last year. With Osimhen occupying the center-backs, Adams is the one finding the pockets of space.

The pressure on the hosts is immense. They are playing in Rabat. If Nigeria scores first, the panic sets in.

Embrace the Chaos

Look, anything can happen. A red card in the 5th minute could ruin all our analysis. VAR could decide that a toenail was offside. 

That is the beauty of AFCON.

But if you stick to the side characters, the Marmoushs, the Adamses, the guys who aren't on the poster you give yourself an edge.

The bookies are watching Salah. You should be watching the guy standing next to him.

Good luck tonight. May your streams be lag-free and your accumulators be green.

TL;DR: The AFCON Semi-Finals are today (Jan 14, 2026), featuring Senegal vs. Egypt and Nigeria vs. Morocco. Our strategy is to ignore the "Match Winner" markets and fade the "Main Characters" like Salah and Osimhen, whose odds are ruined by public hype. Instead, we’re betting on the "Side Characters" who offer actual value: specifically, Akor Adams (Nigeria) to hit 2+ shots and Omar Marmoush (Egypt) to get a shot on target. We’re also backing the Under 1.5 Goals in the Senegal/Egypt game because history tells us they play defensive chess, not football. Shop your lines, don't be a square, and good luck.

Stay degen,

Dima