Sup fellow degens, 

Let's put down the Xanax. 

Now, a little breathing exercise: 

In through the nose. Out through the wallet. 

Better? Good, let's talk about predicting the future. 

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kashi are having a moment. Everyone and their grandmother are currently betting on elections, interest rates, Bitcoin, and whether Taylor Swift will wear blue or red next Wednesday. 

It's the degen life. Everything is chaos on this side. How we process it is to make a bet on the future. Either on slots, stock markets, leverage, or vibe trading on events. 

You read through the communities and you can see that everyone thinks they are Michael Burry because they bet $50 on a coin flip. 

I spent my morning reading through the trenches (r/PolymarketTrading, r/SmallStreetBets, etc) so you don't have to. 

The good news is that there's money to be made. 

The bad news? Most of you are doing it the wrong way. 

Let's talk about the new meta and how to bet on the future without giving your wallet an ulcer. 

A guy on Reddit insisted on a simple strategy: stop trying to be smart. 

You are not an insider. You are the guy in his underwear, refreshing Twitter to the “tundun" sound of your ever-expanding Netflix list.

Your strategy shouldn't be stalking the news. It's stalking the wallets that make the news. 

Find those wallets that mysteriously load up crazy amounts on a position 20 minutes before the odds shift. They aren't psychics. They are insiders (or guys with fast bots). 

We are the remoras attached to the shark. When the shark eats, we eat. Don't ask why. Just copy-paste the trade and take the profit. 

Unlike the stock market, which is run by high-frequency algorithms, prediction markets are slow. 

They are run by some guy named “CryptoDave88" who is probably asleep or high. 

The strategy is to be awake when Dave is asleep. 

The secret to prediction markets isn't reacting to the future. It's reacting to the present faster than everyone else. 

Example: OpenAI drops a new model at 3 AM. The "Yes" shares for "New Model This Month?" are still trading at 10 cents because the market is napping.

Set a custom alert. Buy the cheap shares. Wait for Dave to wake up, panic, and buy your bags at 90 cents.

In prediction markets, being 30 minutes early can be the difference between 10% gains and 100% gains. 

How do you set up these alerts? Use any internet monitoring tools like Ayewatch AI Monitor or MentionAI. Then add what topics you intend to track so it tells you when something relevant happens. 

I understand that we don't read. We look at colorful charts and yell “LFG." Drop “GM" on X and move on with our days. 

But hear me out. 

A true degen treats the prediction markets like a contract law exam. You can't vibe your way through the terms. 

You must understand that prediction markets do not resolve based on “truth." They resolve based on "criteria". 

Look at this scenario: “Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31st?"

Bitcoin hits $100,001 at 8:00 PM New York time on New Year's Eve. Vibe traders celebrate.

But you read the rules. It actually says that the market resolves based on UTC time (London time).

8:00 PM in New York is 1:00 AM on January 1st in UTC. The deadline passed 5 hours ago when Bitcoin was at $99,900.

You bet NO. The market resolves "NO." Vibe traders scream "SCAM" in the Discord while you collect their money.

Before you click buy, always check the rules or resolution tab. If it depends on a specific, slow, or bureaucratic source (like a government agency), you're more likely to win by betting against the public sentiment. 

In court, technicalities let criminals walk free. In prediction markets, technicalities make you rich. 

Prediction markets are the best playground for degens. You can bet on the collapse of civilization from your couch and sip a strong Japanese gin right after. 

Roulette is rigged by math. Prediction markets are rigged by human stupidity.

Every time someone bets on vibes, they leave value on the table. Every time someone sleeps through a major announcement, they are providing exit liquidity for those who set an alarm. 

I have three rules for you: be boring and alert; fade the public; read the rules. 

Don't squander your liquidity by gambling like a tourist. Gamble like a predator.

TL;DR: Most people treat prediction markets like slot machines, betting on "vibes" and headlines. This makes them "exit liquidity" for the pros. Learn how to bet and not lose.

Stay degen,

Dima